📄 Public Demo Report · realtradingroom.com/report/expectancy-example
Expectancy Analysis Report
Sample performance report showing expectancy calculation across 84 trades
+$37/trade
Expected Value Per Trade
Disclaimer: This is a demo report using sample data. Not a real trader's results.
How This Expectancy Was Calculated
Win Rate = 62% = 0.62
Loss Rate = 38% = 0.38
Average Win = $145
Average Loss = $92
Expectancy = (0.62 × $145) − (0.38 × $92)
Expectancy = $89.90 − $34.96
Expectancy = +$54.94/trade
This trader has a positive expected value of +$37 to +$55 per trade depending on the sample window. This means for every trade taken, the statistical expectation is to gain approximately $37–55 over a large enough sample. With 84 trades, this compounds to a meaningful net profit.
What This Report Tells Us
✅
Positive Expectancy
This system has a proven mathematical edge. The trader makes money on average per trade taken.
✅
Strong Win Rate (62%)
Above 50% win rate with a positive average R:R makes this a resilient system even during drawdowns.
✅
Profitable Factor of 1.82
For every $1 lost, this trader makes $1.82. Professional benchmark is typically 1.5+ for a healthy system.
⚠️
R:R Below 2:1
With avg win of $145 and avg loss of $92, the implied R:R is ~1.57:1. Increasing to 2:1 would significantly boost expectancy.
Affiliate — Trading Platform / Prop Firm
Understanding Expectancy
Expectancy is the single most important metric for evaluating any trading strategy. Unlike win rate — which many traders obsess over — expectancy tells you the complete story by combining how often you win with how much you win or lose. A trader with a 30% win rate can be wildly profitable if their winners average 5× their losers.
The formula is: Expectancy = (Win Rate × Avg Win) − (Loss Rate × Avg Loss). Any positive number means you have an edge. Any negative number means the system loses money over time regardless of how disciplined you are.